Analysis of the guards position ahead of the Euroleague Fantasy tip-off.
After the
Centers Preview and the
Forwards Preview, it’s time to look at some of the best guard options as we approach opening night. No special preface is needed at this point: the logic behind these picks has been laid out in the previous pieces. These are players who look capable of drawing interest either immediately or once the first games offer more clarity.
At the top price tiers, variety is the headline: there are so many premium stars that ...you can’t pick them all. Early in the season — and until those in new environments settle — certain names get priority, and each player’s team context matters a lot.
In the mid and lower bands there isn’t the same abundance as with the forwards (we’re also skipping players in good shape like Dorsey and Hall), yet here — perhaps even more so here — you can find near-minimum-cost solutions that look capable of contributing to Fantasy rosters.
Guards
At the very top sits a group of guards who ...will never all fit on the same Fantasy team. Their value and growth potential are such that you’ll be choosing all year long (which isn’t a bad thing) based on form, opponent, internal competition, and other factors. This season the big return is
Vasilije Micic (15.7 credits), now at Hapoel. The buzz is so strong that even the team’s rich internal competition (with
Jones, 11.8 credits — always Fantasy-relevant — plus Madar, and depth at other spots) may not matter as much as Micic’s own intent and intensity. Don’t forget: the Regular Season is a 38-game marathon, and even at Efes there were nights when neither he nor Larkin needed to push.
When he does push, the bar is sky-high — as it is for
Kendrick Nunn (15.6 credits), who, without a few off nights last year, might have been the Fantasy MVP, not just the real one. His grounded price (he peaked at 19.7 credits last year after starting at 12.7) clearly reflects the arrival of another MVP candidate,
TJ Shorts (14.3 credits), sensibly opening lower due to a more competitive environment. Given the adaptation question for the former Paris guard — which Nunn doesn’t have — Nunn naturally gets early priority, not just over Shorts but over most guards in this class. As for how he’ll mesh with the rest of the Greens’ stars, we’ll track it week by week.
Steady elite values like
Mike James (15.2 credits) and
Facundo Campazzo (15 credits) also headline the upper tier — James remains Monaco’s backcourt alpha (though Mirotic now provides a premium Fantasy counterweight up front), while Campazzo can finally breathe thanks to Real’s signings, notably
Maledon (13.3 credits), who, like Shorts, opens lower because of the upgraded team context. These are top-tier picks on pure quality; right now, though, their price isn’t the friendliest ally, especially since their ceiling may not be as easily reachable from week one.
In the same echelon we can include
Carlik Jones (14.9 credits), who excelled in his Euroleague debut with Partizan (18.3 PIR avg.) and now starts with a clearer, consistently high bar. He “earned” 14.9 around midseason last year. If his lead role in Partizan’s offense isn’t undercut by
Milton (12.4 credits), a repeat — or better — season is on the table.
Last season’s revelations,
Carsen Edwards and
Sylvain Francisco, sensibly open higher at 14.1 credits — a price within their range and with no huge obstacles in sight. Still, Dusko Ivanovic’s style with a crowded (mostly role-player) Italian backcourt, and the arrivals of Williams-Goss and Lo in Kaunas, are small asterisks that can slightly dent their opening appeal given the cost. Over time, both should settle back into near-top-tier status at the position.
A similar story played out last year with
Punter (13.5 credits) — 16.5 PIR on average in a Barcelona side hit by injuries (this year, Fantasy magnets Shengelia & Clyburn will soak up plenty of frontcourt ranking).
Elijah Bryant (13.5 credits) at Hapoel might find himself in a similar phase too, given the many options around him — and Micic now “leading.” Bryant is the ideal “Robin,” and should continue in that mold to stay competitive. Last year he had
Larkin (13.6 credits) alongside him; Larkin no longer carries the Fantasy dominance of earlier seasons, but he has the class to produce as needed, in an overhauled Efes backcourt featuring names like
Cordinier (10.8 credits),
Weiler-Babb (10.4 credits), and
Loyd (9.1 credits), among others. All are attractive price points (especially the former Monaco guard, priced off the French roster), but remember: both Cordinier and Weiler-Babb thrived last year with heavy minutes (≈27’), which isn’t guaranteed now in such a crowded perimeter. That’s why their price tags draw managers’ eyes. The same could be true for Lorenzo Brown (10.6 credits) if you set aside his Panathinaikos season. As for Milan’s backcourt, things tend to get complicated — no need to rush.
Valencia’s guards also deserve a mention. The priciest — for now injured — is
Jean Montero (12 credits), who tore it up last season with the team (18.9 PIR in ACB, 15.9 in EuroCup). There’s the more experienced
Darius Thompson (11 credits), coming off an improved year at Efes and hoping to hit his Baskonia levels, plus the rising
Omari Moore (10 credits), arriving from Turkey with a well-rounded game (17.2 PIR) to fortify the Spaniards’ perimeter. The balance among them — and the rest of Valencia’s guards — won’t be easy to define, but the potential is there. For this list, though, we’ll focus lower down, where one specific Valencia case shines even brighter.
Justin Robinson (Paris) - 11.5
He’s the man asked to fill TJ Shorts’ shoes in Paris — that alone puts him on our radar. Robinson proved himself last season with Trapani in Italy, averaging 17.9 in evaluation, and looks ready for the big step to a much higher level. Immediate Fantasy dominance isn’t the most realistic scenario — hence the 11.5-credit tag — but it’s enough to consider a possible early buy, especially since his overall start with the French club has been encouraging (if not flashy). One safety valve: his knack for drawing fouls (5.1 in Italy’s Lega A last season).
Nadir Hifi (Paris) - 11
“Last one out, close the door!” Six of Paris’ seven best players by PIR from last season have departed (everyone above a 3.7 PIR), so Hifi is asked and expected to make another step up and lead this year’s effort to keep the team competitive. Last year he posted 15.1 points and 10.6 PIR in 20 minutes, so the bar rises sharply now, even though Paris hasn’t exactly stood still — they filled the gaps quantitatively.
Talen Horton-Tucker (Fenerbahçe) - 10.5
Fener’s latest signing — with five-year NBA contribution — made his intentions clear right away: 24 points and 7 assists in the Turkish League opener (without Baldwin available). It’s too small a sample to set a firm bar, but given his NBA numbers, it doesn’t take much imagination to see him justifying 10.5 credits, with upside pointing higher. It all comes down to adapting to European basketball and Jasikevicius’ demands, and to coexisting with his new teammates. His arrival may indirectly ding Hall, who at 8.2 credits remains a respectable, time-tested option.
Sterling Brown (Partizan) - 10.4
With so many flashy names — familiar or new to Euroleague — a few players inevitably get less attention despite competitive opening prices. Brown is one of them. He had a very solid year with Partizan, mixing some huge nights (and some poor ones). From Round 20 onward he consistently sat above 10.4 in cost. Since Obradovic’s wings haven’t changed dramatically, the American can keep the same rhythm this year and claim his share of the spotlight at various points.
Wade Baldwin IV (Fenerbahçe) - 10.3
Last season was a Fantasy step back after five straight limit-ups. With prior experience under Saras’ demanding style — and with pillars like Hayes-Davis gone — Baldwin has the tools to step forward on a team infused with promising NBA imports who have talent but not his European experience. Horton-Tucker’s quality may shake up Fener’s backcourt hierarchy, but we still expect Baldwin to perform above his opening tag.
Trent Forrest (Baskonia) - 9.9
Baskonia’s roster looks among the thinnest in the competition (which can be a Fantasy positive for clearly defined roles). The former NBA guard has every chance to thrive after an excellent second half of last Regular Season (he started at 9.9 and climbed to 12.3). The recent addition of Nowell (9.5 credits) — physically similar to Shorts — may cap his ceiling a bit and trim his stock. Even so, his single-digit cost should soon be history; see the forest, not the tree.
Glynn Watson (ASVEL) - 9.8
An immediate investment in a rookie who’ll share time with veterans De Colo and Heurtel carries obvious risks — enough to discourage spending 9.8 credits in your initial build. Watson has upside, though, and could trace an upward learning and Fantasy curve over the season, especially with Maledon and Lee gone. Down the road, he could become livelier for Fantasy, and any DNPs from the “old heads” would open space and minutes.
Xavier Rathan-Mayes (Bayern) - 9.5
From almost out of the rotation to leading role? Bayern had several absences during prep due to EuroBasket, but the Canadian guard’s impressive performances - echoed his standout year at Enisey - are hard to ignore when planning your roster. A breakout EuroLeague season may well be on the horizon. One concern, beyond the small asterisk of how he looks with a full roster: a tough opener at OAKA. With three home games to follow, his single-digit cost could soon feel like a memory.
Tamir Blatt (Maccabi) - 8.2
With an 11.6 PIR average last season and Jokubaitis now in Munich, you might have expected Blatt to open around 11 credits. That didn’t happen because Maccabi added Dowtin Jr. at the point and Walker across the perimeter — both will claim touches and PIR. Even so, the internal competition isn’t prohibitive for Blatt to keep a role similar to last year; the bigger worry is his trademark inconsistency.
Kamar Baldwin (Bayern) - 7.1
The “Georgian” became more familiar to the wider crowd this year — a relatively quiet club season at Baskonia but a more encouraging EuroBasket with Georgia. His 7.1-credit pricing was set before Jokubaitis’ serious injury; naturally the bar rises now. He’ll share the point mostly with the evergreen Jovic — whose 7 credits also look fair given his point orchestration. Still, Baldwin may be the one best positioned to capitalize on the circumstances.
Matthew Strazel (Monaco) - 7.1
The French international entered the Fantasy map last season with a somewhat unexpected step up (considering Monaco’s backcourt depth), while Spanoulis’ arrival further boosted his role. At 7.1, that’s an appealing opening price, especially with Loyd gone to Efes. The complication: Calathes, who seemed on the way out, is currently playing. If he stays, Strazel’s minutes and bar may be limited and stagnant; otherwise, we’re watching for the next stage of his development in both performance and box scores.
Sergio De Larrea (Valencia) - 6.5
Montero and Thompson headline an already crowded Valencia backcourt. Even once the (currently injured) Montero returns, the youngster can keep a foothold in the rotation and the rankings, having flashed his talent at EuroBasket and through preseason. A major plus: his knack for drawing fouls — as seen in the Spanish Supercup, where he was named MVP with 42 PIR and 12 drawn fouls across two games — already putting him in the conversation for Fantasy steal of the year.
Yakuba Ouattara (Paris) - 5.8
Who had the Frenchman among Paris’ preseason standouts — earning time even after Hifi’s return and sliding up to the 3? The risk is higher here, but on a completely rebuilt team, the “old hand” might steady things early. Under that lens, 5.8 credits could interest you, especially if his early form carries into Euroleague games. In Paris’ revamped backcourt everyone is staking a claim — including the “old hand” Herrera (4.5 credits) and the more versatile, higher-ceiling Ayayi (8.5 credits).
Stefan Miljenovic (Crvena Zvezda) - 5
An offensively gifted guard, Miljenovic isn’t your typical deep local role player. He looks capable of carving out a secondary role in Zvezda’s rotation — and, why not, some Fantasy relevance — at near-minimum cost. With Canaan out injured for now, minutes could open up (and he was already seeing time in preseason under Sfairopoulos). For guards, that won’t always translate cleanly (negative PIR nights happen), but he appears to have a higher bar than his position peers.
Adam Atamna (ASVEL) - 4.5
It’s no accident the 17-year-old is priced a tick above the minimum. He’s one of those youngsters who might actually have a role and minutes. In ASVEL’s early games (preseason and beyond) Atamna logged about 20 minutes with PIR clearly above his price tag. There’s no guarantee this continues in Euroleague — Heurtel was also out — but he merits attention in the low-price range, and for now he’s not near the DNP danger zone.
Now it’s time for the final decisions — which we’ll tackle through teams breakdowns and BasketStories’ special columns today and tomorrow.
Devotion.