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DataCenter
COACHES CORNER
Safe Choices, Chasing the Winning Streak
The coaches column kicks off the season avoiding risks.
Published: 30/09/2025 15:49
Here we go! The day has arrived that every die-hard Euroleague Fantasy fan was waiting for. All that remains are the final tweaks after the first official weekend games, which give us a clearer picture of the teams compared to preseason friendlies. Newer Fantasy managers are spending these last days trying to figure out the best strategy to start their teams on the right foot.
Once again this year, the coaches’ corner will be your steady companion every gameweek, aiming to help you climb higher in the rankings.
What changed this year?
For coaches, nothing has changed: the four changes allowed after each round do not necessarily include the coach. That means if you don’t switch your coach, you can still change up to four players (instead of three, which was the old rule).
The biggest change of the season is the return of the captain’s score doubling, and of course the expansion from 18 to 20 teams and from 34 to 38 rounds.
Basic principles
The coach’s score is tied only to the result of his team. Depending on how successful (or not) the outcome is, the coach provides the corresponding score and either gains or loses credits. Credits are also tied to the coach’s value before the game.
We assume the credit adjustments based on win/loss margins (since they aren’t officially published) remain the same as last year:
Wins give more points than losses take away, but in losses you lose more credits.
No coach (like no player) can fall below 4.0 credits.
Why is the coach pick so important?
A bad player pick can, under certain conditions, be corrected (if he plays on the first of the two days). The coach, though, doesn’t change, and he can easily swing from +10 to –5.
Those 20 or 25 points are comparable to the value of the top-performing players over a season. And the credits gained are extremely valuable, especially early on, since they allow you to upgrade to more expensive players.
What have we learned from past seasons?
1. The quality of the weakest team is the main criterion. The past two years, Alba was clearly the worst team, so opposing coaches were the easiest, most obvious pick.
2. We generally pick coaches playing at home. According to valuable Datacenter data, the home team wins about twice as often (63–67%) compared to the away team (33–37%), and wins by more than 10 points about three times as often (30% vs 10%). In other words, the chance of scoring 20 or 25 is almost 3 times higher at home.
Our strategy
We mainly pick home coaches and try to minimize risk, usually by paying up for the more expensive choices. We consider the strength and form of the opponent, and we don’t hesitate to go with the away team if the other side is really struggling.
We use data as our helper — especially the FDR (home/away) from the Teams FDR (using the Home/Away filter to look at upcoming opponents). Of course, at the very start we don’t have much data yet.
What’s different about early-round strategy?
The ability to change four players is precious, especially early on. At that stage, we want to quickly bring in the underpriced players who break out in the first rounds. That’s why it’s important not to waste one of those changes on the coach if we can avoid it. Which means we must evaluate coaches across two or more rounds in advance.
The key unlimited-change dates are:
For example: after Round 4, we only need a coach for one round, since unlimited changes come right after. Ideally, we want a stable coach pick for the first five rounds.
So, this column will suggest two coaches each round:
A long-term pick for 2+ rounds (ideally up to the next unlimited-change round).
A short-term pick for just that gameweek.
How do the teams look so far?
According to transfers and early signs, the column’s estimates are:
Final Four favorites
- Panathinaikos
- Olympiacos
- Monaco
- Fenerbahce
Playoff/Play-in favorites
- Barcelona
- Real Madrid
- Partizan
- Efes
Fighting for top 10
- Valencia
- Milan
- Crvena Zvezda
- Hapoel
- Dubai
Will notch some wins
- Virtus
- Zalgiris
- Paris
- Maccabi
- Bayern
Likely to struggle
- ASVEL
- Baskonia
Who will be the new Alba? Two candidates:
Baskonia lost its two best players, Moneke and Hall, plus Rogkavopoulos and K. Baldwin, and brought in untested Americans with main bets on H. Diallo and Shorts-like, Nowell.
ASVEL lost almost its entire starting five: Maledon, Lauvergne, Lee, Robertson, Sako. They replaced them mostly with EuroCup-level players (Massa, Traore, Vautier), an untested American (Watson), and Heurtel. How much longer can De Colo carry them?
I don’t see how these two don’t collapse and finish 19th and 20th — they look like EuroCup-level teams.
Round 1 matchups
Ideally, we want to start safe with one of the top favorites at home against one of the seven weakest.
From the five very good options, we’ll choose those that can stand over time — namely Ataman and Spanoulis.
Ataman (10 credits): four straight good games — Bayern (H), Barcelona (H), Baskonia (A), ASVEL (H). After that, we’d avoid at Efes (A).
Spanoulis (8.5 credits): five straight games — Zalgiris (H), Dubai (H), Milan (A), Virtus (A), Valencia (H).
Spanoulis’ schedule is slightly tougher but he’s 1.5 credits cheaper.
We tried to find a cheaper short-term solution, but there’s nothing below 8 credits worth the risk.
Let’s give coaches the credit and attention they deserve.
Devotion!
Once again this year, the coaches’ corner will be your steady companion every gameweek, aiming to help you climb higher in the rankings.
What changed this year?
For coaches, nothing has changed: the four changes allowed after each round do not necessarily include the coach. That means if you don’t switch your coach, you can still change up to four players (instead of three, which was the old rule).
The biggest change of the season is the return of the captain’s score doubling, and of course the expansion from 18 to 20 teams and from 34 to 38 rounds.
Basic principles
The coach’s score is tied only to the result of his team. Depending on how successful (or not) the outcome is, the coach provides the corresponding score and either gains or loses credits. Credits are also tied to the coach’s value before the game.
We assume the credit adjustments based on win/loss margins (since they aren’t officially published) remain the same as last year:
- Win by 20+: 25 points and +0.5 credits
- Win by 11–20: 20 points and +0.3 credits if value >9, or +0.4 if value <9
- Win by 1–10 or in OT: 10 points; 0 credits if value >9, +0.1 if value >6, or +0.2 if value <6
- Loss by 1–10 or in OT: –5 points; –0.3 credits if value >7, or –0.2 if value <7
- Loss by 11–20: –10 points; –0.4 credits if value >5.5, or –0.3 if value <5.5
- Loss by 20+: –20 points and –0.6 credits
Wins give more points than losses take away, but in losses you lose more credits.
No coach (like no player) can fall below 4.0 credits.
Why is the coach pick so important?
A bad player pick can, under certain conditions, be corrected (if he plays on the first of the two days). The coach, though, doesn’t change, and he can easily swing from +10 to –5.
Those 20 or 25 points are comparable to the value of the top-performing players over a season. And the credits gained are extremely valuable, especially early on, since they allow you to upgrade to more expensive players.
What have we learned from past seasons?
1. The quality of the weakest team is the main criterion. The past two years, Alba was clearly the worst team, so opposing coaches were the easiest, most obvious pick.
2. We generally pick coaches playing at home. According to valuable Datacenter data, the home team wins about twice as often (63–67%) compared to the away team (33–37%), and wins by more than 10 points about three times as often (30% vs 10%). In other words, the chance of scoring 20 or 25 is almost 3 times higher at home.
Our strategy
We mainly pick home coaches and try to minimize risk, usually by paying up for the more expensive choices. We consider the strength and form of the opponent, and we don’t hesitate to go with the away team if the other side is really struggling.
We use data as our helper — especially the FDR (home/away) from the Teams FDR (using the Home/Away filter to look at upcoming opponents). Of course, at the very start we don’t have much data yet.
What’s different about early-round strategy?
The ability to change four players is precious, especially early on. At that stage, we want to quickly bring in the underpriced players who break out in the first rounds. That’s why it’s important not to waste one of those changes on the coach if we can avoid it. Which means we must evaluate coaches across two or more rounds in advance.
The key unlimited-change dates are:
- After Round 5 (Oct 18–22)
- After Round 11 (Nov 15–19)
- After Round 17 (Dec 20–23)
- After Round 24 (Jan 24–27)
- After Round 28 (Feb 14–25)
- After Round 34 (Mar 28–Apr 1)
For example: after Round 4, we only need a coach for one round, since unlimited changes come right after. Ideally, we want a stable coach pick for the first five rounds.
So, this column will suggest two coaches each round:
A long-term pick for 2+ rounds (ideally up to the next unlimited-change round).
A short-term pick for just that gameweek.
How do the teams look so far?
According to transfers and early signs, the column’s estimates are:
Final Four favorites
- Panathinaikos
- Olympiacos
- Monaco
- Fenerbahce
Playoff/Play-in favorites
- Barcelona
- Real Madrid
- Partizan
- Efes
Fighting for top 10
- Valencia
- Milan
- Crvena Zvezda
- Hapoel
- Dubai
Will notch some wins
- Virtus
- Zalgiris
- Paris
- Maccabi
- Bayern
Likely to struggle
- ASVEL
- Baskonia
Who will be the new Alba? Two candidates:
Baskonia lost its two best players, Moneke and Hall, plus Rogkavopoulos and K. Baldwin, and brought in untested Americans with main bets on H. Diallo and Shorts-like, Nowell.
ASVEL lost almost its entire starting five: Maledon, Lauvergne, Lee, Robertson, Sako. They replaced them mostly with EuroCup-level players (Massa, Traore, Vautier), an untested American (Watson), and Heurtel. How much longer can De Colo carry them?
I don’t see how these two don’t collapse and finish 19th and 20th — they look like EuroCup-level teams.
Round 1 matchups
Ideally, we want to start safe with one of the top favorites at home against one of the seven weakest.
- Panathinaikos vs Bayern: Big favorite, though Greens had no real preseason.
- Hapoel vs Barcelona: New but strong on paper, Hapoel. No fans yet — we wait for clearer signs.
- Crvena Zvezda vs Milan: Slight edge to Milan on paper, but Zvezda always strong at home — avoid.
- Monaco vs Zalgiris: Strong and cohesive, Monaco — big favorite.
- Efes vs Maccabi: Efes favored, Maccabi weakened, but game on neutral court.
- Dubai vs Partizan: Dubai new but strong on paper, Partizan solid — avoid.
- Virtus vs Real Madrid: Real big favorite, Virtus retooled — question mark.
- Baskonia vs Olympiacos: Olympiacos clear favorite, only Baskonia’s home court raises questions.
- ASVEL vs Valencia: ASVEL poor, Valencia new — we wait and see.
- Fenerbahçe vs Paris: Paris’ strength completely unknown, Fener big favorite.
From the five very good options, we’ll choose those that can stand over time — namely Ataman and Spanoulis.
Ataman (10 credits): four straight good games — Bayern (H), Barcelona (H), Baskonia (A), ASVEL (H). After that, we’d avoid at Efes (A).
Spanoulis (8.5 credits): five straight games — Zalgiris (H), Dubai (H), Milan (A), Virtus (A), Valencia (H).
Spanoulis’ schedule is slightly tougher but he’s 1.5 credits cheaper.
We tried to find a cheaper short-term solution, but there’s nothing below 8 credits worth the risk.
Let’s give coaches the credit and attention they deserve.
Devotion!
